Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q3 2020
In this edition of the Forecast, the PGI Geopolitical Analysis team look at the ongoing and future impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on public health and the economy, ongoing pandemic-related civil unrest in a number of countries, and political violence and deteriorating international relations in parts of Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
Many countries in Asia and Europe have made progress in slowing the spread of the virus over the previous quarter, but outbreaks are accelerating in the Americas, Africa and South Asia. Although more than 75 percent of countries worldwide are in some phase of reopening, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a significant negative impact on the global economy. The IMF said in June that it expects a deeper global recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021 than initially envisioned.
The risk of protests will increase in many countries as the economic impact of the virus is felt. Countries reliant on oil or tourism are particularly at risk, with rising unemployment likely to be a key trigger of protests. Unrest will be exacerbated by public anger over weak government responses and inadequate or non-existent economic support. The Forecast looks in-depth at:
- Protests in Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador over pandemic restrictions and the economic fall out.
- The prolonged nationwide protests against racism and police brutality in the US.
- The recommencement and the likely continuation of protest movements in Algeria and France.
While the security landscape remains largely unchanged from the previous quarter, there is a widening Islamist insurgency in Mozambique; an increase in militant attacks in Burkina Faso. There are also rising tensions between India and China over their disputed border in Ladakh, with the first deadly clash occurring at the border in at least 45 years. and in Yemen, a separatist bid for control of southern Yemen further complicates international efforts to secure a lasting peace agreement amid the ongoing civil war.
For in-depth analysis of these events and more, you can purchase the Forecast. We have made a sample of the content available for download:
What is the Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast?
PGI’s clients need to know what’s happening around the globe and the implications for the future. The Geopolitical Risk Forecast provides this information based on our ongoing monitoring and analysis of global events and geopolitical activity, and our experience working with organisations that have global footprints and need to ensure the safety of their people and the continuity of projects and commercial relationships.
The Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast assesses previous and anticipated changes to the country risk ratings used by the PGI Geopolitical Risk Portal, covering a range of security and commercial threats.
What’s in the Forecast?
The Forecast is structured by region and provides an assessment of countries that have experienced a changing threat environment, as well as forward looking analysis for the next quarter.
The full document will cover:
- Threat changes: An assessment of a change in the quantitative risk score given to a country in the past quarter.
- Watch list: Current and forecast trends or upcoming events that could change the threat environment within a country during the next quarter.
- Key dates: Key political, religious and cultural dates and events to be aware of which could be of interest or pose a risk.
- Trend changes: An analysis of trend changes across the Risk Portal’s eight security and three business threat categories.