Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q2, COVID-19 Edition

- Intelligence - Risk portal

14-04-2020


Get the latest full Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast

The COVID-19 pandemic is at the forefront of global operating risks, so it only makes sense that this quarter’s report focuses on the impact it has had—and will have in the coming months—across the globe. And in order to support many organisations struggling to navigate the global and country-specific trends and incidents in these trying times, we have decided to make the report available free of charge (usually £750).

In this edition of the report, we have made major changes to medical ratings globally and placed numerous countries on the watchlist to reflect the increased threat from COVID-19.

The virus has also prompted unprecedented travel restrictions and domestic lockdowns that will have a lasting impact on business. In particular, hospitality and service sectors have been most severely affected, though many supply chains continue to operate. It is also expected that recurring outbreaks will present a continued risk in the coming quarter as countries try to balance pressure on health care systems with damage to the economy.

Notably, the coronavirus has affected protest movements worldwide, with many groups limiting their own mobilization and many governments introducing lockdowns. However, the pandemic could contribute to future unrest and the ensuing economic impact and discontent over government responses may manifest in greater unrest globally in the coming quarter. This may be particularly severe in countries reliant on tourism that are unable to mitigate the economic fallout from the virus.

If you would like to receive the full report, please contact our team via riskanalysis@pgitl.com.

What is the Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast?

PGI’s clients need to know what’s happening around the globe and the implications for the future. The Geopolitical Risk Forecast provides this information based on our ongoing monitoring and analysis of global events and geopolitical activity, and our experience working with organisations that have global footprints and need to ensure the safety of their people and the continuity of projects and commercial relationships.

What’s in the Forecast?

The Forecast is structured by region and provides an assessment of countries that have experienced a changing threat environment, as well as forward looking analysis for the next quarter.

The full document will cover:

  • Threat changes: An assessment of a change in the quantitative risk score given to a country in the past quarter.
  • Watch list: Current and forecast trends or upcoming events that could change the threat environment within a country during the next quarter.
  • Key dates: Key political, religious and cultural dates and events to be aware of which could be of interest or pose a risk.
  • Trend changes: An analysis of trend changes across the Risk Portal’s eight security and three business threat categories.

More information

To find out more or subscribe to the Risk Portal, please get in touch by phone +44 (0) 1884 842 874 or email riskanalysis@pgitl.com.

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