PGI’s Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q3 2021
In PGI’s Q3 Geopolitical Forecast Report, analysts have assessed notable developments across civil unrest, political and international relations threat ratings in 17 countries. The Geopolitical Risk Forecast provides this information based on our ongoing monitoring and analysis of global events and geopolitical activity to allow you to make sense of an increasingly unpredictable world.
Theme highlight: Political violence
Political violence is one of the key themes across this quarter’s report, with a number of countries on the watch list.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban militants have taken control of several districts across the country in recent weeks. Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban continue in Doha but it is unclear if or when any agreement will be reached.
Continued uncertainty around delayed elections in Somalia has resulted in disputes over the election process, which may undermine the vote, and Al-Shabaab militants will attempt to take advantage of any security vacuums over the election period.
The June re-election of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Armenia will likely result in the continuation of anti-government unrest.
Region highlight: Americas
PGI raised Colombia’s civil unrest threat rating due to sustained anti-government protests since April. Protests are likely to continue in the coming months as the government has made little indications of conceding to protester demands over social and economic instability and police brutality.
In Peru, rival presidential candidate supporters have mobilized since disputed 6 June second-round presidential elections. In Nicaragua, the intimidation and arrest of opposition figures is likely to continue ahead of presidential elections in November.
A surge in political assassinations and attacks in recent weeks has prompted an increase in Mexico’s political violence threat rating. The country has seen a wave of political violence over June mid-term elections which may continue should authorities not act to combat criminal groups.
Q3 insights webinar: 20 July
Join us for a free webinar on 20 July at 2pm. Our analysts will share further insights from the report and explore the impacts of the key themes on three key countries: China, Colombia, and Afghanistan.
What is the Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast?
The Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast assesses previous and anticipated changes to the country risk ratings used by the PGI Geopolitical Risk Portal, covering a range of security and commercial threats. This easily digestible format allows you to understand how these events may have a real-world impact on your business and operations – and proactively safeguard against them.
What’s in the Forecast?
The Forecast is structured by region and provides an assessment of countries that have experienced a changing threat environment, as well as forward looking analysis for the next quarter.
The full document will cover:
- Threat changes: An assessment of a change in the quantitative risk score given to a country in the past quarter.
- Watch list: Current and forecast trends or upcoming events that could change the threat environment within a country during the next quarter.
- Key dates: Key political, religious and cultural dates and events to be aware of which could be of interest or pose a risk.
- Trend changes: An analysis of trend changes across the Risk Portal’s eight security and three business threat categories.