Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q2 2021
The PGI Quarterly Geopolitical Forecast Report identifies major changes in international relations, along with political violence, civil unrest while also tracking the business environment and countries’ continued efforts in dealing with COVID-19. The Geopolitical Risk Forecast provides this information based on our ongoing monitoring and analysis of global events and geopolitical activity to allow you to make sense of an increasingly unpredictable world.
PGI correctly anticipated a rise in the risk level in Myanmar and we expect this to continue. We are seeing an increase in the civil unrest threat rating following nationwide demonstrations since the military coup in February. We expect the situation to continue its decline.
Doing business in Myanmar is also becoming increasingly difficult, as the imposition of sanctions by numerous governments has further complicated the country’s fraught operating environment.
Violent unrest is likely ahead of Ethiopia’s delayed parliamentary elections in June, amid a sustained uptick in ethnic tensions nationwide which has fed the current unrest.
This is further exacerbated with a raise in Ethiopia’s International Relations threat rating. Tensions between Addis Ababa and Khartoum over the disputed al-Fashqa border region have resulted in sporadic border clashes since November 2020. Ethiopia’s relations with international partners, such as the US and EU, have also deteriorated over the Tigray conflict.
Iraq has been placed on the watchlist for political violence following clashes between US forces and Iran-backed militias since February. Attacks by pro-Tehran militias on US targets in Iraq have continued in 2021 despite the withdrawal of most US troops in Iraq in January.
Conversely, there has been an improvement in Libya’s political violence rating following the formation of a government. Rival factions agree to the formation of a unity government in March amid a continued decline in hostilities between the two sides, though it is unclear whether December elections will successfully take place.
There has also been a deterioration in Lebanon’s regulatory environment threat rating due to a worsening economic crisis and currency collapse. Any resolution to the crisis is unlikely amid a deadlock over the formation of a government.
Continued COVID-19 impacts
Coronavirus (COVID-19) will continue to impact countries to a varying degree as vaccine programmes are rolled out. The coming months may see some countries with weaker vaccination programmes struggle to start economic recovery and counter unemployment. There is also an increased risk of unrest in countries and between nations where vaccination campaigns are delayed and the economic fallout from the pandemic is severe.
Brazil’s medical threat rating has increased amid rising COVID-19-associated deaths in the country. Many hospitals have reported oxygen shortages and high intensive care ward occupancy.
The UK will likely be one of few European countries to lift major COVID-19-related restrictions in the coming months due to the quick rollout of its vaccine campaign. Meanwhile, a slow vaccine rollout in the EU has failed to mitigate the impact of repeated outbreaks.
What is the Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast?
The Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast assesses previous and anticipated changes to the country risk ratings used by the PGI Geopolitical Risk Portal, covering a range of security and commercial threats. This easily digestible format allows you to understand how these events may have a real-world impact on your business and operations – and proactively safeguard against them.
What’s in the Forecast?
The Forecast is structured by region and provides an assessment of countries that have experienced a changing threat environment, as well as forward looking analysis for the next quarter.
The full document will cover:
- Threat changes: An assessment of a change in the quantitative risk score given to a country in the past quarter.
- Watch list: Current and forecast trends or upcoming events that could change the threat environment within a country during the next quarter.
- Key dates: Key political, religious and cultural dates and events to be aware of which could be of interest or pose a risk.
- Trend changes: An analysis of trend changes across the Risk Portal’s eight security and three business threat categories.